US President Donald Trump's military leverage against Iran is steadily weakening and is nearly gone, former Israel Air Force commander Maj.-Gen. (res.) Eitan Ben Eliyahu told 103FM on Thursday, amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and reports of a shortage of US interceptor missiles.
Ben Eliyahu spoke with Nissim Mishal and Anat Davidov on Thursday morning about tensions in the Persian Gulf following Iran's announcement that an agreement with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz was in its final stages. He also addressed recent reports of a shortage of US interceptors and a dispute between Trump and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the issue.
According to the former Israel Air Force commander, the sides have yet to reach a full, formal agreement.
“For now, there is still no agreement,†he said. “There is more or less an understanding that Iran will control entry into the strait, but regarding the exit from the Gulf, it is still unclear whether it will have control or not.â€
“The second issue is that Iran is demanding a certain commission, while Oman is demanding less,†he added. “One side is demanding around 7%, while the other is asking for only 3%, and the United States is demanding that there be no payment at all. We often hear inaccurate reports, not to mention outright fake news, and that is true this time as well.â€
Iran's strategy and Trump's military leverage
Ben Eliyahu then addressed the possibility that Tehran was misleading Trump.
“The Iranians operate in a way that the American president does not understand,†he said. “In my opinion, he does not understand this mentality. We barely understand it either. Perhaps we understand it a little better, but we do not respond as we should.â€
“It is not exactly ‘deception,'†he added. “They raised an idea that, from their perspective, is a good one. It says: ‘Leave the Americans out of it. This is our business with the Omanis, and in this way, we will overcome the restrictions of international law, because if it is only us, then it is an absolute problem.'
“In other words, it would be completely prohibited under international law. If an agreement is reached with Oman, it creates an opening in international law. That is also why they are ignoring the Americans.â€
Asked whether this would constitute a concession from the US perspective, Ben Eliyahu gave a clear answer.
“Absolutely,†he said. “I do not know whether Trump will go along with it, and I do not know what power he has not to go along with it. His military leverage is gradually weakening, and I would say that he is almost losing it.â€
He then criticized the conduct of the US president.
“How many times can you attack?†Ben Eliyahu said. “How many times can you cry wolf when it does no good, and how many times can you attack and achieve a result? At a certain point, achievements, resilience, and endurance are not measured by economic damage or by attacks on symbols of government.â€
“The Iranians are reaching a point where they are prepared to sacrifice themselves, to hold out to the death and to the last soldier,†he continued. “When you reach that point, the use of force loses its leverage.
“Then you ask the most important question: When is the right moment? The other side has an almost unlimited capacity for attrition. So where is the point at which you stop? Where do you begin to make concessions?â€
Interceptor shortages strain regional defenses
Ben Eliyahu also addressed the contentious issue raised by recent reports of a severe munitions shortage, according to which the US had depleted nearly 80% of its air-defense interceptor stockpile.
“I do not have definitive information, and nobody does,†he said. “The issue is that the matter was brought to the surface when that general at the command in Europe expressed it. So there is some kind of problem. Now the argument begins: Is it 60%, 70%, or 80%? It does not matter.â€
“If the defense were only for Israel, it would be a form of point defense,†he continued. “Are all the missiles aimed at Israel? You deploy here, and you have Israeli and American missiles, and for every anticipated scenario, you have reasonable protection.
“But when it begins to spread out, and there is also a need to defend Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt, Turkey, and Israel, the entire system becomes dispersed. The Iranians only need to fire two missiles at Qatar to require the deployment of a complete defense system there.â€
“The number of missiles the Iranians launch is small,†Ben Eliyahu concluded. “The number of launchers and missiles that the Americans, or we, need to deploy throughout the Middle East is far, far greater. That is why the shortage is significant.
“Imagine a country suddenly left completely exposed to missile launches and missiles that split into multiple projectiles, with nothing available to stop them. That is an intolerable situation.â€
